Mature bucks often return briefly to the same rut areas each year. These can be classic pinch points, funnels or routes that let them scent-check doe bedding or feeding areas. (Shutterstock photo)
November 25, 2024
By Ryan Fair
The whitetail rut, while exciting, is a highly chaotic event. One day, bucks might chase does all around your stand. The next, you may sit from dark to dark and only see a squirrel. This randomness can be maddening for hunters. However, what if I told you that within all the rut’s chaos, there is some predictability?
With a little work and some time, you can use historical data collected over the years to help predict when and where a buck will show up during the rut. Once you compile this data and study it, you’ll notice that there’s usually a 3-day window most years during which a buck will return to familiar rut locations looking for does to breed. With that in mind, let’s look at how to gather and analyze all this information to capitalize this season.
KEEP RECORDS When I first started recording data from my whitetail hunts, I was vague in what I wrote down. I’d log if I saw any deer, the wind direction and what direction deer were traveling. Shortly after starting my journal, I also created a folder on my computer to archive all my trail camera pictures of bucks. One evening, while reviewing images taken during the rut, I began noticing a trend. Three specific bucks, each with very identifiable features, showed up in the same locations within a 3- to 5-day window every year to check scrapes and look for does. This revelation spurred me to elevate my efforts.
In each journal entry, I now log every little thing I think may help me in the future. Beyond the basics, I record barometric pressure, moon phase, high and low temperatures for that day and the historical averages, wind speed and direction and the wind’s effect on the milkweed fluff I use to look for thermals. I keep track of all deer, too. I note where they come from and go, how they act, the phase of the rut and if they react to any calling or scents I may use during the hunt. I compile all this information into an easy-to-read spreadsheet that lets me recall any relevant detail I might need for future hunts.
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With trail cameras, I still save every image of any buck I think I could target in the coming years. I create a folder on my computer for each buck, then I make folders for the pre-rut, rut and late season. This lets me view each phase of the hunting season, see where the buck was and look for any key patterns I could use to my advantage. Many hunters would be surprised how often a deer returns to the same areas year after year.
To compile the necessary year-by-year data, you’ll need to hang cameras in certain key locations and commit to leaving them there. For example, I have 10 dedicated Moultrie Mobile cell cameras that I deploy in August—usually around historic scrapes, rut funnels and pinch points. Once I observe a pattern, I use Weather Underground or a similar weather site to look up relevant historical data I may need, such as wind direction or temperature. I then log this in my journal to help plan future hunts.
Phone applications, like Spartan Forge, can also aid in logging historical data. It’s amazing what you can do with some of these apps. To start, I mark each rub, scrape, bed and mast-crop tree I see. I can then look at an aerial map of my hunting location with all these pins and see trends. One good example is a historical rub line leading back into a buck bed. These rub lines are sometimes hard to identify on the ground, but within the app, they’re readily apparent.
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I also log crop rotation and food plot sites in the app, which helps me look ahead to the coming years. For instance, I’ve learned that when there is corn in the field next to one certain woodlot, I see three times more bucks than when it’s planted in beans or winter wheat.
Lastly, when talking about phone apps, some—like Spartan Forge—use AI to predict deer movement based off historic weather data. I compare this information to my own data when deciding what stand I want to hunt on any given day throughout the season.
MAKE A PLAN The more you put into gathering historical data, the more you ultimately get out of it, which is why it pays to log as much relevant information as possible. My typical planning process usually begins each year at the start of August when I sit down and examine past years’ data and apply it to upcoming rut hunts. First, I review journal entries, pinning down key areas where I had good encounters from the tree stand. Then, I check the current crop rotation and determine what previous years saw similar plantings. In the Midwest, farmers usually rotate between beans and corn, with each being planted in a given field every other year.
Making a long-term view means leaving cameras out for extended periods. Solar panels can help keep cameras operational longer. (Photo courtesy of Moultrie Mobile) After this, I look at an overhead view in the map feature of the Spartan Forge app. I’ll pinpoint key areas that intersect with solid recorded buck sightings from the stand, factoring in camera captures as well. If I’ve seen bucks using a specific location in the past—a rub line leading back into a small thicket along a creek, for example—I’ll deploy a trail camera there.
A rut scrape (one that only gets worked during the rut) is another good example. I found one of these scrapes 5 years ago, and every year since, every local buck works the scrape throughout the rut. Place a camera here as soon as possible, too. You want cameras in position early so they notify you the day bucks start showing up. Once a target buck makes an appearance, it’s time to strike. Your historical data should provide an idea of how long your window of opportunity to tag this buck will be open.
IDENTIFY RUT ROUTES Gathering historical data, however you do so, also reveals go-to rut hunting spots. It should be no surprise that during the rut, bucks often use alternate travel routes when cruising for does. Areas that at first glance appear completely random make complete sense to a buck. When breeding is all that’s on a buck’s mind, he’ll choose the easiest routes possible to move between doe groups. Often, these paths course downwind of areas doe frequent—whether bedding or food sources—so bucks can simply scent-check as they cruise by.
With some scouting, you can find these classic rut pinch points and funnels that every buck in the area seems to frequent. Good places to look for historic sign and buck travel routes are fencerows connecting two blocks of timber, small pockets of cover, inside corners of a woodlot and places where two different habitats meet up, like a field edge that abuts timber.
Some spots may not seem obvious on a map, and they can be similarly hard to find while scouting in person. Often, the best way to find these travel routes is spending time on stand during the rut. A perfect example is a creek crossing I found several years ago. It’s much steeper than a similar crossing 75 yards downstream that deer use throughout the season, which is where I’d hung my stand. The steeper crossing hadn’t stood out when I initially scouted the area, but as I sat in the stand that year, I watched several bucks use this crossing during the rut. While scouting the following spring, I examined the other crossing and found it was downwind of two different doe bedding areas. The crossing allowed bucks to scent-check multiple locations while cruising, and without seeing it from my stand and documenting it, I never would’ve considered hanging a stand there.
When choosing where to hang a stand or stake a blind for the rut, use the same approach you would when selecting where to hunt. Evaluate data from past seasons in the spring and place stands and blinds accordingly for the upcoming season.
Lastly, while historical data can be used to guide stand placement and hunting decisions, never rely on it exclusively. Don’t get transfixed on only hunting a certain stand in November. Although history usually repeats, bucks can and will do crazy things during the rut. For this reason, I always keep a few cell cameras ready to deploy at any given time. If I come across red-hot sign on my way into a hunt, I’ll hang a camera. And if it looks fresh enough, I may even use my tree saddle to hunt the spot. Always be ready for anything when it comes to the rut.
This article was featured in the November 2024 issue of Game & Fish magazine. Click to subscribe
