Breaking: Survey Says Duck Breeding Population Surprisingly Up 5%

Earlier this year, there was a sense of doom and gloom among those who thrill to blow a cocobolo duck call, send their Labrador retriever on a splashy retrieve, and bag a limit of ducks destined for the dinner table.

That’s because severe drought had gripped major portions of the fabled "Duck Factory" over the winter and early spring, leading to depression-filled social media reports about what might be to come this fall after what could be a dismal year of duck production.

But that was then and this is now. After weeks of heavy rains that have gripped the northern Great Plains in the U.S. and the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in southern Canada, and with the copious rainfall continuing even as late as last week, a sudden turnaround was seen in many portions of the Duck Factory, allowing for a better-than-anticipated year of waterfowl production.

In fact, when the 2024 Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey report was issued this morning by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, there was a bit of a nice surprise mixed into the numbers, as overall breeding duck population figures rose 5 percent from a year ago in the traditional survey region of southern Canada and northern U.S.

And thanks to the May pond counts and breeding survey work done by biologists with both the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Canadian Wildlife Service earlier this year. The best news of all was that breeding duck numbers in 2024 were approximately 34 million, an increase from last year's estimate of 32.3 million breeding ducks.

While USFWS biologists no longer issue a fall flight forecast, it could be surmised that another fairly good season could be coming up for duck hunters in the Lower 48, similiar to the last couple of years, if not slightly better. As in most seasons, it will depend on local habitat and food availability, as well as winter weather that will push fall flights southward and hunting pressure as the ducks migrate.

It's also worth noting that while this year’s increase might be viewed as only modest by some observers, duck biologists indicate that the 2024 figure of 34 million breeding ducks this year actually marks the first increase in the overall duck breeding population figure since 2015, a positive surveying development after a winter and early spring when the PPR couldn’t buy a drop of rain.

Even so, this year’s May pond count figure, a number that serves as a key barometer for both the health of the Duck Factory breeding habitat, as well as potential duck production each year, was up 4 percent in 2024 as compared to 2023. And do note that the pond count would have likely been even higher if it were conducted in June and July this year after the heavy rainfall arrived and left portions of the prairie awash in water.

And equally worth noting is that mallards, the benchmark species for many North American duck hunters, also got in on the good news with a 2024 breeding population estimate of 6.6 million, 8 percent above 2023 greenhead numbers.

Biologists from North America’s two primary waterfowl conservation organizations found plenty of reason to deliver some hope with the survey news. And if you read between the lines of the report, reasons to smile might actually increase too.

“This year’s report suggests that some duck populations had better production last year than expected, with good carryover to spring of this year,” said Dr. Steve Adair, chief scientist for Memphis, Tenn.-based Ducks Unlimited, in a news release. 

“While estimates were down in the prairies, population levels were up in northern breeding regions. We heard reports of an early spring, with ducks migrating through when the prairies were still dry and likely overflying to the Boreal Forest. This is a pattern we’ve seen many times before, and it appears to have been the case again this year.” 

In Bismarck, N.D., a place that has seen some good precipitation in recent weeks, Delta Waterfowl also cheered the good news and indicated that duck numbers are up indeed and wetland habitat conditions have certainly improved in a number of key spots in the PPR.

“An increased breeding population of ducks and pair counts, along with wetland habitat conditions that improved throughout May and June with good spring rains across most of the prairies, should help boost duck production,” said Dr. Frank Rohwer, president and chief scientist for Delta Waterfowl, in the organization's news release.

“We definitely have potential bright spots for duck production in the eastern Dakotas and possibly in Manitoba. The spring rains really helped in those areas, as well as parts of Alberta that started the spring quite dry.”  

But if the overall mood was brighter in August than it might have been back in April, there was also a bit of glum news, as this year's figure proved to be 4 percent below the long-term average (1955-23). Also, mallard breeding numbers took their own tumble again versus the LTA, falling 16 percent below that 1955-23 LTA average figure.

In terms of individual duck species that typically breed in the Duck Factory, mallard breeding numbers weren’t the only ones that went up this year. Waterfowl biologists also note that breeding numbers were up for green-winged teal and scaup (bluebills) too.

Duck Numbers

Biologists noted the following 2024 breeding population numbers for key duck species that use the PPR:

• Mallards had a 2024 breeding population number of 6.609 million, up 8 percent from last year's figure of 6.126 million but down 16 percent against the LTA (1955-23).
• Gadwall had a breeding number of 2.284 million, down 11 percent from the 2023 number of 2.561 million, but up 11 percent against the LTA.
• American wigeon were at 2.922 million, up 55 percent from 2023's figure of 1.890 million and 12 percent above the LTA.
• Green-winged teal sat at 3.005 million, up 20 percent from last year's breeding population number of 2.503 million and up 38 percent against the LTA.
• Blue-winged teal were at 4.599 million, down 12 percent from last year's figure of 5.250 million and down 10 percent from the LTA.
• Northern shovelers were at 2.646 million, down 7 percent from the 2023 figure of 2.858 million and right on the LTA number.
• Northern pintails were at 1.975 million, down 11 percent versus last year’s 2.219 million and down 49 percent against the LTA.
• Redheads were at 782,000, down 16 percent versus the figure of 930,000 a year ago but also up 6 percent versus the LTA.
• Canvasbacks sat at 566,000, down 8 percent against last year's figure of 619,000 and down 4 percent against the LTA.
• Scaup sat at 4.059 million, up 16 percent versus last year's 3.517 million, but down 17 percent against the LTA. 

While pintails were down 11 percent from last year’s breeding figure, a recent understanding that previous pintail numbers may have been inaccurately assessed has led to a three-pintail daily bag limit in 2025-26 after a recently approved interim pintail harvest strategy was adopted.

Biologists also noted that this year’s May pond count estimates in the U.S. and Canadian nesting grounds were at 5.2 million, a 4-percent increase from a year ago. And while this year’s late spring and summer rains may have been too late to benefit early migrators this spring, as those ducks begin to migrate southward in a few weeks, they should find habitat more to their liking as they push down the flyways.

“Although pond numbers fluctuated in some regions, rains that fell immediately prior to the survey boosted prairie pond numbers more than many anticipated,” said Adair. “Rains continued well after the surveys were conducted, bringing life-sustaining water to large portions of the prairies. 

“While not fully reflected in the survey results, these improved wetland conditions should have benefitted late-nesting waterfowl, renesting and brood survival.”

Waterfowl biologists also noted that in addition to the improved habitat and the increase in 2024 breeding duck numbers as compared to last year in the PPR region, habitat in Alaska, British Columbia, and other northern survey areas also improved. Such areas are important to Pacific Flyway hunters and those in the most western portions of the Central Flyway, and duck hunters in those spots should benefit from better breeding numbers too.

Eastern Duck Survey

In the Eastern Survey Region which is important to hunters in the Atlantic Flyway, duck breeding population numbers also increased in five out of the six major duck species surveyed. 

Mallards didn't increase, however, and saw a small drop down to 1.169 million. That 2024 figure is down 4 percent from last year's breeding benchmark of 1.2 million greenheads and is down 9 percent from the LTA. 

Also, while wood ducks aren't included in the six main species that are surveyed, 2024 population estimates in the Eastern Survey Region found that woodies have also dipped in 2024, down to 900,000 breeding birds this year. That’s a drop of 10 percent from last year's 1 million breeding ducks but is right on the LTA mark.

Leading the way in Eastern Survey Region duck increases for 2024 were goldeneyes, which had a breeding number of 1.201 million in 2024, up 42 percent from last year's figure of 836,000. Other eastern ducks seeing gains this year were green-winged teal (468,000, up 20 percent from last year's 384,000 and up 23 percent from the LTA); American black ducks (862,000, up 17 percent versus 2023's breeding figure of 736,000 and up 23 percent from the LTA); ring-necked ducks (731,000, up 9 percent from 2023's 666,000 figure and up 2 percent from the LTA); and mergansers (993,000, up 1 percent from last year's 987,000 and up 23 percent from the LTA).

All in all, today’s 2024 duck production news is a positive step forward from what might have been anticipated earlier in the year when things looked particularly bleak. And while the noted overall increase was modest, it was still ahead of where things might have been and where they were a year ago.

Proving that in duck surveying work, just as in life and sporting events, it’s not how you start that matters, it’s how you finish. And with any luck, this year's duck production and fall flight cycle will finish with a bang in a duck blind near you this fall.

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