This Year's Duck Hunting Numbers Point to a Great Season

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Waterfowl Population Status Report shows steady duck populations.

September 03, 2025 By Lynn Burkhead

The late, great New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra may or may not have cared anything about duck hunting, but the Hall of Famer once quipped something that perfectly sums up the 2025 breeding numbers released today by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

The Yogism? Berra is reported by many to have said once, "It's déjà vu" all over again."

Duck hunters completely understand that sentiment from Yogi, because it's a pretty good way to describe the news that broke on Sept. 2, 2025, when the USFWS released its "Waterfowl Population Status, 2025" report.

Amazingly, the 2025 numbers were all but a dead heat when compared with the numbers the Service released in 2024. And that’s not only true in the overall breeding population figure of 34 million both this year and last, it’s also virtually the same in the North American continent’s most popular duck species, the mallard.

The announcement today of the duck breeding population's status quo follows an interesting and winding route, with the path to last year’s 34 million and this year’s 34 million sharing some similarities, along with key differences.

This year, the annual breeding population survey—obtained each May and early June by biologists with the USFWS and the Canadian Wildlife Service as they drive and fly transect routes in the Traditional Survey Area (TSA) of southern Canada and the northern U.S.—found a 2025 estimate of 33.98 million ducks, down slightly from last year's 33.99 million figure. With roughly 34 million breeding ducks in the TSA this year, waterfowl hunters in the Lower 48 could potentially expect similar fall flight prospects as they saw last year, although winter weather, agriculture practices, landscape changes and other factors can influence local waterfowl movement on a national, regional and local scale.

As was the case a year ago, the 2025 breeding duck population figure remains 4 percent below the long-term average (an average maintained since 1955 when the breeding survey began). It's important to note that last year's mark of 34 million breeding ducks was an increase, the first such since 2015.

Today's news also showed that mallards, the bread-and-butter trophy duck for many of North America's hunters each fall, were estimated at 6.6 million breeding ducks. Those numbers are also like last year's breeding figure and remain 17 percent under the long-term average (LTA).

According to Delta Waterfowl President and Chief Scientist Dr. Frank Rohwer, the mallard status quo likely comes due to the greenhead's frequent flyer miles.

“The survey shows a bit of a redistribution of mallards from last year when a higher percentage settled in the Yukon and Northwest Canada,” Rohwer said in a Delta news release. “In southern Saskatchewan, mallards had a little better water this spring, but it was still dry there.”

Pintails, another species that many duck hunters are interested in, actually showed a 13-percent increase for this summer, checking in at 2.2 million breeders in 2025. While that's better than a year ago, it's still 41-percent below the LTA.

“I think there’s new evidence that pintails in the Arctic are reproducing better than we gave them credit for,” said Rohwer. “We used to think when the prairies were dry, they’d go to the Arctic and not breed. With the prairies in a drought, the Arctic and boreal forest regions seem to be producing enough ducks to maintain the populations.”

With this year's data regarding pintails, it is expected that under the USFWS' new interim pintail harvest strategy that all four flyways will have a three-pintail daily bag limit in next year's 2026-27 season framework package. That expectation comes as a result of today's breeding population report being announced.

Besides the ever-popular greenhead and the pintail, gadwalls showed an upward trend in 2025, checking in with 2.4 million breeders in 2025, up 6 percent from a year ago and up 17 percent versus the LTA.

Other species showing an increase in breeding numbers this year include the American wigeon, which jumped 9 percent from last year. Checking in at 3.2 million, the American wigeon breeder figure is up 22 percent versus the LTA. “Wigeon seem to be defying logic again,” said Rohwer. “They breed in the prairies and the Arctic. I have to believe the Arctic is producing more ducks than we thought.”

Northern shovelers notched 2.8 million breeders in 2025, up 4 percent from both 2024 figures and the LTA. Diving duck hunters can rejoice as well since redheads checked in with 0.92 million breeders, up 17 percent from last year and up 25 percent against the LTA. Canvasbacks were at 0.69 million breeders this year, up 22 percent from a year ago and up 17 percent from the LTA.

On the disappointing side of the 2025 duck population ledger is the blue-winged teal, which declined 4 percent from a year ago with a breeding figure of 4.4 million this year—a 13-percent decline against the LTA. This year's breeding bluewing number will likely keep hunters in the Central, Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways saddled with a nine-day early teal season for the fall of 2026-27.

Green-winged teal, another popular duck for many hunters, saw their 2025 breeding figure tumble to 2.55 million, some 15-percent below last year. There remains a slight bit of good news for the speedy and delectable greenwing, however, because the popular and colorful teal species sits at 16 percent above the LTA.

And finally, the news for scaup—or bluebills—continues to be disappointing, with the diving duck species checking in at 3.68 million breeders in 2025. That figure represents a 10-percent decline from last year and a 25-percent decline against the LTA.